Variance Simulator
Poker results swing a lot, even for winning players. Variance Simulator plays out thousands of possible futures from your numbers, so you can see the full range of results your game can produce, not just the average.
Why Variance Matters
A winning player can lose for months, and a losing player can run hot for just as long. Short-term results say little about how good you really are.
Knowing how big your swings can get helps you stay calm through downswings, choose the right stakes, and judge your game by the long run.
How to Read the Chart
Each one is a possible run of your results. Together they show how differently the same win rate can turn out.
Where 70% and 95% of runs end up at each point. The wider they get, the bigger your swings.
Your expected result: what you win on average over time.
The best and worst of the runs shown.
What You Enter
Live players usually measure results per hour. Online players usually use 100 hands. Pick the one that matches how you track your game.
How many big blinds you win on average, per hour or per 100 hands.
How much your results swing. Deep stacks, straddles, loose games, aggressive play and Omaha all push it higher.
Your average tournament profit as a share of the buy-in. An ROI of 20% means you win 0.2 buy-ins per tournament on average.
How many players enter each tournament. Bigger fields pay the top places more and cash less often, so results swing more at the same ROI.
Once you've logged 4 or more sessions in Session Tracker, tap "Use my Session Tracker stats" to fill in your real numbers.
What the Results Mean
How often you'd still be down after the hours, hands or tournaments you chose.
The range where 19 out of 20 runs finish.
The biggest drop from a high point in a typical run. The unluckiest 5% of runs drop even further.
The longest stretch of tournaments without a cash in a typical run.
How often you finish in the money, based on your ROI and a standard payout structure that pays the top 15% of the field.
Expect the Swings
Downswings are part of poker, even for winning players. Know how big yours can get before they happen, and judge your game by the long run.
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